USDA Projections to 2023 & Rabobank Outlook

In their report entitled International Long Term Projections to 2023, the United States Department of Agriculture in July 2014 (International Egg & Poultry Review Vol 17 (30), 29 July 2014 predicted:

• World poultry production and consumption to grow 31.6% to reach 119.4 million metric tons ( M MT) by 2023 from 90.7 M MT in 2012
• Trade to increase 31.3% from 10.8 M MT to 14.2 M MT
• Major poultry meat production increases will occur in India (+102%), Brazil (+40.1%), China (+33.4%), USA (+24.5%) and EU (+7.4%)
• Top 4 exporters (Brazil, USA, Thailand & EU) accounted for 88% of poultry meat exports in 2012 but this will fall to 83% by 2023. Brazilian & USA exports will increase by 32% and 17% respectively and Argentina to increase by 85%
• China and Mexico will increase imports by 50% & 82 % respectively but Russian imports will fall 77% and japan by 17%.

In a recent report from Rabobank’s Food & Agribusiness Research & Advisory Team on the outlook for the global poultry industry, the world’s premier agricultural bank states that the outlook for the industry is improving driven by better market balances, ongoing high competitive protein prices and lower grain & oilseed costs.

Global trade volumes remain negatively influenced by the continued economic slowdown I key emerging economies, currency depreciation in Japan and volatile demand in China & Hong Kong. There is now a shift in trade steams away from Asia towards the Middle East & Africa.

22 December 2014